Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). Until this year. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. It's happened before. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. Will they vote for the winner in 2016? Suggest an improvement, report an issue, Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. 12. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? In 2020, a single. used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. These are the bellwether counties. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. What results did you discover? Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. It requires a lot more than pure luck.). Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. . Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". Website Updates Paused Their emotions and decision making process are real. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. (i.e. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) Trump won 18 of the 19. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . Still, the state's worth watching. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. What science tells us about the afterlife. (subject to censorship). But that's no longer the case. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. ET. Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. Hillary Clinton (578) In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). Found an error on our site? The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. That's 14 in a row. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via Nobody forgot about politics.". While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. All other 21 counties voted Republican. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. We believe this was a mistake. But it's still indicative of widespread support. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. University of New Hampshire . History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. TIP: (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Outstanding. We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. What, if anything, did we miss? Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. Yes, another Hillsborough! Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? 6. So, where are the bellwether counties? In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. It is easy to gloss over this. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. Really stop reading. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020.